LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Last week, the Exhibition Industry Research Center (CARS) released the CEIR report for the third quarter of 2022 during Expo! Expo!International Exhibitions and Events Association (Yes) Annual Meeting and Exhibition. The report suggests that the trade show industry is beginning to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and is slowly recovering and adapting to current conditions in order to survive.
While the industry is still in flux, the report shows that attendance, exhibitor numbers and spending have all increased steadily in 2022 compared to 2019, when the pandemic began. This indicates that the trade show industry is starting to recover and events are becoming more popular as people start to feel comfortable attending again.
More than 20% of trade shows scheduled for Q3 2021 have been cancelled, limiting the usefulness of comparisons between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022 results, as any positive changes would be very large and misleading. A more useful comparison is to 2019 performance results, measured as an industry benchmark before the COVID-forced shutdowns. The total CEIR index – a measure of overall exhibition performance that focuses on exhibitor, attendee, actual revenue and net square footage metrics – continues to recover, with an overall result 22.3% lower than 2019. But this is a marked improvement over 2020 and 2021. There was a 98.3% decrease from 2019 in the third quarter of 2020 and a 50.0% decrease from 2019 in the third quarter of 2021.
While still down from 2019, the trend is positive, with both the overall index and specific indicators improving over the past six quarters. Of the completed events, 14% surpassed their pre-pandemic levels in the total CEIR index. “Despite Omicron in early 2022, CEIR research has documented an intent to return to face-to-face engagement at B2B trade shows, and the quarterly CEIR index results show that recovery is underway,” said CEIR CEO Cathy Breden, CMP-F, CAE, CEM. “Each quarter, the index shows that more professionals and exhibitors are returning to the B2B trade show channel to meet their marketing, sales and business information needs.”
Holiday weekend economic indicators give trade show industry reason to be cautiously optimistic about expected recession
One of the key statistics from the CEIR for Q3 2022 reveals that the cancellation rate for physical in-person events remains low, although it increased slightly from 2.0% in Q2 to 3.1% in Q3. These rates represent a substantial improvement from 97.8% in Q3 2020 and 20.6% in Q3 2021.
Of the four indicators, exhibitors suffered the largest decline, down 23.6%, followed by attendees, down 23.2%. Actual revenues fell 18.0%. Net square footage (NSF) in the third quarter was the indicator that declined the least, down 14.4% compared to the third quarter of 2019.
Additionally, the report also suggests that the sector is becoming more resilient, with technology playing an increasingly important role in how events are delivered.embraceof the emergence of new technologies and new strategies that can help it adapt to the changing landscape.
Of all events originally scheduled for Q3 2022, 0.38% were postponed, 3.04% were canceled, and 96.58% were completed as scheduled. Of the in-person events canceled in Q3, approximately 38% were repurposed to digital events. Excluding postponed events, the cancellation rate was 3.1%, as previously reported.
The forecast for 2023, however, is cause for concern. There are many opinions as to whether the economy is in recession or heading towards one. These prospects have implications for the exhibition sector.
As a result, 2023 will be a challenging year for the trade fair industry as the economy slows further and businesses become more cautious. “The cancellation rate for B2B trade fairs is expected to remain extremely low and the performance of completed events will continue to improve,” said Dr. Allen Shaw, CEIR’s chief economist. Global Economic Consulting Associates, Inc. “A full recovery of the industry is expected in 2024.”
Among the 14 industry sectors monitored by the CEIR, the consumer discretionary and government sectors are expected to outperform, while the IT and building and construction sectors will lag the overall exhibition sector.
Contact Cathy Breden at cbreden@ceir.org; Dr. Allen W. Shaw at allens@gecainc.com