The U.S. B2B exhibition industry experienced a slight slowdown after a robust first quarter (Q1) of 2024, according to the Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) Q2 2024 Index, which measures overall exhibition performance across four metrics: exhibitors, attendance, net square footage and actual revenue.
Due to modest performance in all four CEIR indicators for completed events, the second quarter index value fell from 92.3 in the first quarter to 87.7 in the second quarter, compared to 100 in 2019.
Marsha Flanagan, IAEE president and CEO, said the latest CEIR data demonstrates that the B2B exhibition sector is making steady progress in its recovery, with key indicators all moving in the right direction, albeit at different rates.
“We remain cautiously optimistic about the industry’s ability to fully rebound to pre-pandemic levels in the near future,” Flanagan said.
The health of the U.S. exhibition industry will undoubtedly be impacted by the U.S. economic outlook.
“Economic growth is expected to be slower next year, but with strong household balance sheets, a gradual recovery expected in business investment and moderate inflation, we anticipate a supportive backdrop for moderate growth in the exhibition sector,” said Adam Sacks, chairman of Tourism Economics, a subsidiary of independent global consultancy Oxford Economics.
He added that although the recovery of the exhibition sector has been uneven, the economic environment should support further improvements.
What does the CEIR data reveal? Here’s our list of four takeaways from the latest CEIR report:
- Slower growth than the same period last year. This decline reflects a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared to the second quarter of 2023.
- Not all have yet returned to 2019 levels. Performance remains 12.3% lower than the same period in 2019, indicating a slight decline from last year’s figures, which included a 10% deficit in the second quarter of 2022.
- But nearly half of them have surpassed pre-pandemic numbers. Despite the slowdown from Q1 2024, 44.3% of events in the index sample have surpassed their pre-pandemic CEIR total index performance, a significant increase from just 20.5% in Q2 2023.
- Trade show cancellations remain low. The cancellation rate for in-person events remained low at 1.0%, comparable to the same quarter in 2023 and significantly lower than the 2.2% cancellation rate in the second quarter of 2022.
Behind the numbers: economic indicators
The CEIR results are consistent with overall economic performance, which indicates a slowdown with no signs of recession. Consumer confidence has weakened and business sentiment has fluctuated due to recent events that have generated unwarranted pessimism about the economy, the report said.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July from 3.5% last year, largely due to an increase in the labor force participation rate, which should ease pressures on wages and inflation. GDP growth accelerated to 2.8% in the second quarter, reflecting the strength of the economy and improving the outlook for the CEIR in the second half of the year.
Oxford Economics’ Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) remains in the “slowdown” zone, but remains well above recessionary levels (Chart 3). With manufacturing still weak and housing market activity subdued due to high interest rates, some pressures may ease as the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting campaign this month.
Although it will take time for lower borrowing costs to impact sectors, the short-term benefits of fiscal policy and the conclusion of the destocking cycle should support economic activity, the report said.
Consumer Spending and Travel Trends
Consumer spending grew significantly in June, with projections for continued increases throughout the year as real incomes improve and household balance sheets are strong, despite a rise in the unemployment rate.
Despite a decline in sales at gas stations due to lower gas prices and a cyberattack on auto dealerships impacting car sales, spending in nearly every other category increased significantly, with strong underlying retail sales in June suggesting that real consumer spending in the second quarter rose nearly 2% annualized.
Although air travel volumes have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, U.S. hotel demand has stagnated at about 2% below pre-pandemic levels. The increase in U.S. citizens traveling abroad has contributed to this slower recovery, with international tourist arrivals still not reaching pre-pandemic levels, resulting in a net loss of about 3% in U.S. hotel demand.
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