OXON HILLMd. –– The good news from the Center for Exhibition Industry Research’s (CEIR) Q2 Index is that, without a doubt, the U.S. B2B exhibition sector improved significantly in the last quarter. Cancellations fell to just 2% of all shows, down from 100% in Q2 2020.
However, the overall picture is of an industry still in the recovery phase. Total CEIR Index–– the gold standard for Overall exhibition performance –– is still 25.5% less than in 2019. This is nevertheless a clear improvement compared to the last two years: down 100.0% compared to 2019 in the second quarter of 2020, 75.1% compared to 2019 in the second quarter of 2021 and, most recently, 37.9% compared to 2019 in the first quarter of 2022.
Related. First Quarter CEIR Index Shows B2B Events Industry in Full Swing
With new shows and existing shows expanding or moving to a different time of year, 10.5% of all completed events exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. However, excluding canceled events, the total CEIR for completed events in Q2 2022 was still down 24% from 2019. Key metrics including revenue, net square footage, and attendance and exhibitor levels remain below 2019 levels. Actual revenue was still down 26.3%.
The just-released CEIR report took into account both overall U.S. GDP and the uncertainty of an impending recession in its second-quarter report. The U.S. economy performed much better than the exhibition sector, with real GDP increasing 3.8% from the second quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2022, adjusted for inflation. The overall economic recovery has long been driven by consumer spending on goods; in the second quarter of 2022, spending on consumer services also returned to pre-pandemic levels.
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The big unknown is the recession, and the CEIR had Allen Shaw, chief economist at Global Economic Consulting Associates, Inc., analyzed the implications this could have on the second-quarter numbers. He concluded that growth in gross domestic income, U.S. output, employment and other areas point to an improvement in the economy and the exhibition sector in the second half of the year.
“Falling inflation and moderate economic growth ahead should provide a solid foundation to support the B2B trade show sector,” Shaw said. “The B2B trade show cancellation rate is expected to remain extremely low and the performance of completed events will continue to improve.”
You can read more about the report and purchase a copy here.
Reach Allen Shaw at ashaw4811@yahoo.com