DALLAS — As an objective measure of the exhibition industry’s annual performance, the CEIR Index, produced annually by the Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR), is a valuable tool that trade show executives use to measure their metrics against industry benchmarks.
“It is also absolutely critical to the Exhibitions & Conferences Alliance’s (ECA) advocacy work in Washington, D.C., and across the country,” said Tommy Goodwin, ECA’s vice president of government affairs. “Each year, the Index provides the timely data we need to demonstrate to federal policymakers that the business-to-business exhibition sector is an economic engine that drives jobs and commerce from coast to coast.” CEIR CEO Cathy Breden, CMP, CAE, CEM, added, “It is through the data collected for the Index that CEIR is able to generate economic impact numbers tied to U.S. GDP. This economic impact of the exhibition sector is important to telling our story about the impact of trade shows on the U.S. economy.”
After pausing 2020 due to a shortage of trade shows and data due to pandemic-related closures and postponing data releases from its usual April schedule, CEIR has released the 2021 CEIR Index Report, which analyzes the performance of the business-to-business (B2B) exhibition sector in 2020 and provides an economic and industry forecast for exhibitions for the next three years.
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CEIR presented a forecast update to the index at the CEIR Predict conference, held Sept. 13-14 at MGM National Harbor. The index measures year-over-year changes in four key indicators to determine overall performance: net exhibit space sold (NSF); trade attendance; number of exhibiting companies; and gross sales. It focuses on collecting data across 14 key industry sectors, from business services and consumer goods to education, food, government, building and construction, medical/healthcare and transportation.
According to information released during CEIR’s Predict session, while there has historically been a strong correlation between B2B trade show performance and gross domestic product, that was not the case in 2020 as the world went into lockdown to try to limit the spread of COVID-19. While a few smaller trade shows did take place in 2020 after COVID hit, overall the index was down 78.5% from 2019. (Click here to watch a video of the key findings from this presentation.)
Related. Overview of Global Industry Performance Assessment 2021
The index presents three scenarios, from worst to best to most likely.
Worst case scenario: The delta variant persists or a new highly contagious variant emerges in 2022. In this case, the industry will not fully recover until 2024. The good news is that the probability of this happening is 30%.
Best possible scenario: Vaccination rates continue to rise. If this happens, the sector will fully recover by mid-2022. However, the chances of this happening are only 10%.
Most likely scenario:Cancellation rates continue to decline in Q3 and Q4 as more shows return online. There is a 60% probability that the industry will fully recover by 2023.
“In the baseline scenario, the impact of COVID-19 diminishes and the exhibition sector is expected to rebound dramatically in 2022, surpassing 100% year-over-year growth across all 14 sectors, albeit from a low base in 2021,” said Dr. Allen Shaw, CEIR Chief Economist for Global Economic Consulting Associates, Inc. “By the end of 2023, the exhibition sector is expected to fully recover. However, sector-specific performance will diverge based on its secular (long-term) trends and underlying macroeconomic conditions.”
Sectors expected to drive the recovery include industrial machinery and finished goods, food and consumer discretionary, and services. Sectors that the index predicts will be slow to return to pre-pandemic levels include materials and science, business services, consumer goods and retail, and education.
Visit the CEIR website for information on how to purchase the full version CEIR Index Report 2021 as well as individual sector reports.
Contact Tommy Goodwin at (703) 672-0780 or tommy.goodwin@ecalliance.net; Cathy Breden at (972) 687-9201 or cbreden@iaee.com; Allen Shaw at economist@ceir.org