PITTSBURGH — Epidemiological modeling has been used for decades in the fight against diseases ranging from measles to MERS, and it is now playing a central role in decision-making around business events in the era of COVID.
Enter Epistemix, a computer modeling startup that spun out of the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health. Epistemix models an anonymous digital “twin” of each person in a population based on age, gender, race, and other demographic information, as well as location and vaccination rates, and uses that data to determine potential infection risk. Its modeling is being used by organizations ranging from Fortune 500 companies trying to decide how to safely reopen their offices to universities like Drake University determining what COVID protocols to implement.
The Exhibitions and Conference Alliance (ECA) has partnered with Epistemix to share its models with major cities and trade show organizers, and the company has served as a consultant to members of the International Association of Exhibitions and Events (IAEE) and the International Association of Fairs and Expositions, as well as the Global Biorisk Advisory Council (GBAC), on large-scale events in nearly 20 cities, including Boston and Los Angeles.
“The math and science we use to create these custom models will help leaders make the best decisions possible when planning their conferences,” said Don Burke, MD, president of Epistemix and former dean of the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health.
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Burke helped create what’s known as the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED) a decade ago to predict the progression of epidemics. In a recent webinar, “Using Data to Accelerate and Improve Pandemic Response,” he discussed the many factors that influence modeling and how some behaviors, including those related to vaccination, have been more unpredictable during this pandemic than in other outbreaks. “In the FRED framework, each person is represented as a separate computational entity,” Burke said. “But populations are affected by factors like socioeconomic status, housing, transportation. Dynamic events happen, and the hard part is modeling human behavior. How do people make decisions?”
Human behavior cannot change the disease, but it can change the course of the pandemic.
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The news for business events, however, is positive. A recent survey by Freeman and Epistemix of 5,165 attendees and 442 exhibitors found that the risk of COVID-19 infection at a business event can be 8 times lower than the risk to the general public in the same metropolitan area where the event is held. Business event attendees have an average vaccination rate of over 80%, well above that of the general population.
The study also found that the majority of attendees and exhibitors are willing to put aside concerns about the Delta variant to return to in-person events, and more than 90% are not opposed to additional health and safety protocols in order to gather safely.
Epistemix offers an event dashboard and report; event organizers can get a 10% discount on the dashboard by using “IAEE10” at checkout (you do not need to be an IAEE member to get the discount).
Contact Don Burke at (412) 383-3595 or donburke@pitt.edu