DALLAS –The U.S. B2B industry continues to rebound, according to the Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CARS).
The fourth quarter 2022 statistics show continued improvement over the previous 11 quarters. The cancellation rate for physical in-person events fell to 1.3%, a significant improvement from 97.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 14.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021.
“The fourth quarter B2B trade show results show a trend in the right direction. Some shows have fully recovered, while others are still down in terms of exhibitors and attendance. The outlook is positive: CEIR forecasts anticipate a full recovery in 2024,” Cathy Breden, CEO of CEIR, CMP-F, CAE, CEM, said.
A relatively low cancellation rate and continued improvement in completed event metrics boosted the Q4 2022 index result. As expected, the total CEIR index, a measure of overall exhibition performance, continued to recover, increasing 40.6% year-on-year. Compared to Q4 2019, it was still 21.4% lower, but still a marked improvement over the past two years, which included declines of 97.8% year-on-year in Q4 2020 and 44.1% year-on-year in Q4 2021.
The fourth quarter 2022 results show a continued but unstable recovery. Nevertheless, the direction is positive, with both the overall index and specific indicators improving over the past seven quarters. Of the completed events, 23.6% exceeded their pre-pandemic levels of the total CEIR index.
Some organizers launched new events, expanded existing events to new locations, or held them at a different time of year. Looking at the results excluding cancellations, the performance of events that took place in Q4 2022 shows continued improvement: they are down only 18% compared to 2019, which is much better than the 54.9% decline recorded in Q1 2021 compared to 2019.
Related. Third Quarter CEIR Index Shows B2B Events Industry Still in Recovery Phase
Among the four indicators, the number of participants is the one that has progressed the least, still down 19.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019; followed by exhibitors with a decrease of 18.9%. Actual revenues are 16.6% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019. Net surface area in the fourth quarter is the indicator that has declined the least, down 16.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.
The organization’s report contains some worrying information. The team projects that the probability of a shallow recession in 2023 is about 50%, and is now slightly above 55% following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Companies anticipating a coming recession are cutting spending and staffing. However, if there is a recession, it is likely to be shallow because household debt service payments as a share of disposable income remain low although they have increased slightly recently, there is pent-up consumer demand for services such as travel and tourism, most large companies still have ample cash on hand, and there is a race to adopt new technologies such as AI.
Companies that are cautious may face challenges, but that is not enough to prevent the recovery from continuing. “The positive momentum in in-person trade show attendance will continue. The cancellation rate for B2B trade shows is expected to remain extremely low and the performance of completed events will continue to improve,” said Dr. Allen Shaw, CEIR economist and chief economist of Global Economic Consulting Associates. “A full recovery of the sector is expected in 2024.”
Among the 14 industry sectors monitored by the CEIR, the consumer discretionary and government sectors are expected to outperform, while the IT and building and construction sectors will lag the overall exhibition sector.
“Despite Omicron’s arrival in early 2022, CEIR research has documented an intent to return to face-to-face engagement at B2B trade shows, and the quarterly CEIR Index results continue to show that recovery is underway,” Breden said. “Each quarter, the Index shows more professionals and exhibitors are returning to the B2B trade show channel to meet their marketing, sales and business information needs.”
The CEIR plans to release the 2023 CEIR Index Report in late May, which analyzes the exhibition industry’s performance in 2022 and provides an economic and exhibition industry outlook for the next three years.
Contact Cathy Breden at cbreden@ceir.org and Dr. Allen W. Shaw at allens@gecainc.com