CHICAGO — Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2022 according to the “third” estimate recently released by the Economic Analysis BureauIn the second quarter, real GDP declined by 0.6%. The revised estimate of third-quarter GDP indicates that the economy continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic and shows signs of strengthening. This is a positive sign for the economy, as it suggests that the worst of the economic crisis may be behind us.
The report attributes the third-quarter real GDP gain to higher exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending, which were partly offset by declines in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Consumer spending and business investment were identified as the largest contributors to the GDP gain. Consumer spending on services, such as health care, education, and recreation, was particularly strong. In addition, business investment in equipment and intellectual property increased.
Related. Third Quarter CEIR Index Shows B2B Events Industry Still in Recovery Phase
Data collected on trade fair sector activity throughout 2022 reflect slow but steady GDP growth. The Exhibition Industry Research Center (CARS) has signaled its intention to return to face-to-face interactions at B2B trade shows, and the CEIR quarterly results show that a recovery is underway in the trade show sector. “With safety measures implemented at large gatherings that have taken place, and with a majority of the population vaccinated and immunized, the recovery of B2B trade shows is expected to continue,” said CEIR CEO Cathy Breden, CMP-F, CAE, CEM.
Trade show organizers are also optimistic that the pandemic will end and economic growth will continue. “We’re encouraged,” said Jeff Quade, executive vice president of exhibitions for GHG“Making meaningful connections is essential to our core business, so this is a positive turning point for our clients, exhibitors, attendees and teams. Our employees have successfully adapted to this new worldview and we look forward to continuing what we do best: creating memorable experiences for marketers, organizers and event attendees.”
Economic experts are generally optimistic about the growth recorded in the third quarter, noting that it is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. They attribute this growth to the improving labor market, rising wages and increased consumer confidence. However, some experts warn that the current growth rate may not be sustainable in the long term, as it could be affected by ongoing trade conflicts or other economic headwinds.
The third-quarter 2022 GDP report may provide some clues, but other factors will ultimately determine the strength of the economy in 2023. It is important to consider the impact of changes in government policies, consumer spending, the labor market, inflation, and global economic conditions. As more information becomes available, economists will be better able to make predictions about the economy in 2023.
“The latest data show that the labor market remains strong, although business and household surveys are giving mixed messages. Monetary policy appears to have been successful in reducing inflation, despite continued increases in food and energy prices,” said Peter Rupert, Ph.D., professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara (University of California, San Francisco), director of the Economic Forecasting Project and associate director of the Global Economics and Finance Lab at UCSB.
Contact Cathy Breden at cbreden@ceir.org; Jeff Quade at jquade@ges.com; Peter Rupert, Ph.D. at peter.rupert@ucsb.edu