WASHINGTON DC — U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product estimates rose, jobless claims remained weak and inflation eased, all good news for the trade show industry heading into 2024.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius estimates that there is only a 15% chance of a recession in the United States in 2024, down from the 35% he predicted in January 2023. A recession will be avoided, barring an unforeseen crisis.
One reason for the decline in inflation is lower gasoline prices. According to Kiplinger’s Economic Outlook, inflation fell to 3.1% in November 2023, down from 3.7% in September. Gasoline prices fell 6% in November, and inflation is expected to fall to 2% by the end of summer 2024.
Additionally, travel is on the rise. According to a Harris Poll conducted on behalf of Intrepid Travel, more than half of respondents plan to prioritize travel over non-essential luxuries next year. The poll also found that four in five (80%) American adults plan to take a vacation or leisure trip in 2024.
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With the hopeful news, consumer confidence has strengthened. According to the latest survey by the Conference Board, a nonprofit organization that specializes in economic research, economic optimism is at its highest level since July.
Investors are hoping that the Federal Reserve will be able to manage what is known as a soft landing for the U.S. economy in 2024 and start cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. In addition, the Fed recently changed its economic projections and no longer anticipates a recession in the United States.
Moreover, the S&P 500 is on track to end 2023 up more than 20%, and much of the year-end gains likely rest on rising expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024.
Although the trade show industry has faced a global pandemic, inflation, wars and geopolitical tensions, it has recovered and returned to growth mode.
“This is all quite remarkable. It speaks to the power of our industry and our business model. We build and operate marketplaces and meeting places where people come together in person. The value of this simple model has been proven once again,” said Kai Hattendorf, UFI’s Managing Director and CEO.
Join Kai Hattendorf at kh@ufi.org