CHICAGO — The Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) released its Q1 2024 Index, which showed further improvement in the industry year-to-date, with the total CEIR Index increasing 4.3% year-over-year and the Q1 2024 Index value reaching 92.3.
The total index includes four components: net square footage, attendees, exhibitors and actual revenue. Compared to 2019 benchmarks, net square footage is up 0.3%, attendees are down just 3.4%, exhibitors are down 11.2% and actual revenue (adjusted for inflation) – the slowest measure to recover – is down 15.5%.
Net square footage was the fastest-recovering metric in the index.
“This suggests that companies that exhibited during the pandemic are increasing their investment in the trade show channel by purchasing more exhibit space, which speaks to the value of the channel for participating exhibitors. The CEIR Index reveals that NSF per exhibitor has increased, indicating that exhibitors are choosing to purchase more exhibit space,” said Nancy Drapeau, IPC, vice president of research at CEIR. “The fact that NSF has surpassed the first quarter of 2019 is an exciting result, suggesting that the industry is on track to fully recover. And the fact that attendance is one of the top-performing indicators is a good sign, because when attendance is good, other indicators tend to follow in the future.”
The first quarter performance shows an improvement as it is reported 7.7% below its respective 2019 level, while it was down 32% in the first quarter of 2022 and 11.5% in 2023. Notably, 41.8% of all events in the index sample exceeded their pre-pandemic CEIR Total Index performance, up 7.3% from the first quarter of 2023 results.
Related. Q4 2023 CEIR Index Shows Continued Strong Improvement
The Q1 2024 study also includes a look at how hotel demand is changing compared to Q1 2023, with demand for upscale and luxury hotels seeing the only positive change, up 4%. This category of hotels hosts a significant share of group meetings and conventions.
Hotel demand change from Q1 2023 for total U.S. demand is down 1.4%, independents are down 4%, economy and midscale are down 4.5%, and upper midscale and upscale are down the least at -0.4%.
The index indicates that slower GDP growth in the first quarter of the year could impact hotel performance as travellers become more budget-conscious due to inflation and higher interest rates.
“The CEIR forecast anticipated that the pace of recovery would enter a more measured phase once the initial uptick in activity had passed. Exhibitor and attendee participation in trade shows takes time and requires advanced commitment,” Drapeau said. “That said, we cannot underestimate the impact of the overall economic performance on the performance of the CEIR index, where inflation and fears of a 2023 recession hampered trade show growth last year and a relatively sluggish economy in early 2024 has resulted in only modest growth for the sector.”
CEIR also recently released the CEIR 2024 Index Report, which provides an analysis of industry performance in 2023 as well as an outlook on the industry and economy for the next three years.
“Over the coming quarters, many corporate investment decisions, including trade show budgets, will be made in a context of continued high interest rates and a slowing economy. It remains important to pay attention to the sectors that are most active in terms of hiring and trade show activity. Readers interested in understanding the outlook by sector are encouraged to download the Index report,” said Drapeau.
You can purchase the full report here.
Contact Nancy Drapeau at ndrapeau@ceir.org