The risk of contracting Covid-19 could be close to zero for a trade show this summer, according to research from the Exhibition and Conferences Alliance’s (ECA) Go LIVE Together (GLT) campaign and infectious disease modelling expert Epistemix. The news, based on Epistemix’s scientific modelling, prompted the ECA and the International Association of Exhibitions and Events (IAEE) to issue a call to action on Global Meetings Industry Day (GMID) on 8 April for states to develop plans for reopening trade shows. The Society of Independent Show Organisers (SISO) has also sent an alert to its members urging them to take action.
On April 13, ECA also announced its partnership with Epistemix to provide expert guidance on how to safely reopen trade shows and events, based on the size of the event and when event capacities can safely increase across venues across the United States. According to the Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR), COVID-19 and the associated closures and travel reductions have reduced the $396 billion U.S. business-to-business exhibition segment of the U.S. business events industry by $80 billion.
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“The exhibition and event industry needs timely written reopening guidance from state and city government officials to assist event organizers in their necessary planning efforts,” said David DuBois, CMP, CAE, FASAE, ECA Co-Chair.
“It takes months of planning to make decisions, communicate, and deliver successful trade shows and conferences. The models, developed by Epistemix and the Exhibitions and Conferences Alliance, clearly show how low COVID transmission rates are when our industry takes, as it has long done, proper safety and health precautions and procedures. It is important to share this valuable and effective information with our government and health officials.”
Hervé Sedky, President of ECA, said: “The Center for Exhibition Industry Research estimates that events contributed $101 billion to U.S. GDP in 2019. Our industry has what can be called a multiplier effect on businesses, as the impact of these events stimulates economies across the United States through sales that take place beyond the walls of convention centers.”
Epistemix uses mathematical and scientific data to create customized epidemiological models to support decision-making about reopening trade shows while preventing the spread of COVID-19, according to Epistemix President Dr. Don Burke.
The company has built similar models for other epidemics, including smallpox, HIV, SARS and MERS, using software that integrates a “digital twin” that matches the age, gender, race and other demographic information of each individual in a specific geographic area. It then uses this synthetic population to model how to safely hold a conference, trade show or other large event during the COVID-19 pandemic.
A model for reopening
For the study announced on April 8, Epistemix, in partnership with GLT and ECA, included several factors in modeling the anticipated risk for events planned for 2021. These include the potential level of immunity in a given venue based on historical infection rates, vaccination rates, and the potential impact of new variants. The study also included estimates of the likely number of infectious individuals likely to attend the event based on the size of the event and the region of origin of attendees, as well as the adoption of voluntary health and safety measures.
The study’s result was that a 20,000-person event in New York City this summer that took all voluntary precautions should have an infection rate close to zero.
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Taking the model on the road
ECA is now using these models in major trade show cities across the United States to bolster its increasingly urgent calls for states to develop trade show reopening plans. Through this new partnership, ECA will also be able to develop science-based plans to safely bring back large-scale business gatherings in the United States.
While California Gov. Gavin Newsom recently announced plans to reopen the state to group events on June 15, he is planning a cap of 5,000 attendees, as well as testing and vaccine verification requirements that could “make hosting successful business events nearly impossible,” said DuBois, who is also president and CEO of the IAEE. American Public Transportation’s recent decision to move its event from California to Florida, which is more widely open to group events, puts California and other states that still restrict large business events at risk of losing them to states with less restrictive policies.
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“We are working to help state leaders understand the economic impact of commercial events, as well as our industry’s unified commitment to adhering to health and safety guidelines, and the planning required to produce an event, so that local guidelines can be adjusted to allow us to reopen events across the country,” DuBois said.
On GMID, he called on trade show organizers to download and share this fact sheet with local authorities in upcoming host destinations. The fact sheet outlines what venues and event organizers are doing to meet and exceed voluntary health and safety compliance measures, including industry-wide AllSecure guidelines, GBAC STAR accreditation and, for hotels, Safe Stay guidelines.
Contact David DuBois at (972) 687-9204 or ddubois@iaee.com and Hervé Sedky at herve.sedky@emeraldx.com. For more information about Epistemix, visit epistemix.com.