PITTSBURGH — Masks may be off at meetings — at least temporarily — as Covid cases continue to decline through the spring and summer, according to the latest report from Epistemix. Throughout the pandemic, trade show organizers have turned to Epistemix’s targeted analytics tools, which evaluate details like venue and attendee demographics, to make informed decisions about safety protocols at their events.
According to the firm’s forecast for the second quarter of 2022, most parts of the country will have a COVID-free spring and summer and resume most pre-pandemic activities with mask-wearing optional. “Then, depending on your region, you should keep a close eye on how the situation evolves toward the end of the summer and wear a mask for indoor activities if cases increase for two consecutive weeks in your area,” the report says.
The report projects infection rates to spike in southern cities, including Atlanta, Orlando, and Nashville, in August, with cases starting to rise in July before declining in September. For other major cities, including New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, Epistemix predicts a very gradual fall surge, with cases slowly increasing through August.
“A striking feature of these forecasts is the variation both between and within seasonal regions,” said Erin Zwick, director of health and disease modeling at Epistemix. “Wave patterns between regions have become more evident in the third year of COVID-19, and variation within regions is also increasingly apparent. For example, New Orleans and Orlando are both in our southern seasonality region, but the peak in New Orleans is earlier and sharper than the peak in Orlando. Contact patterns and social networks can create very different waves in seasonally similar regions.”
It’s important to remember that this projection, which is based on historical data including past cases, hospitalizations and deaths, as well as the numbers of partially vaccinated, fully vaccinated and vaccinated people, is not a prophecy, Zwick said. “We hope that with information about an upcoming surge, people can respond quickly with appropriate mitigation strategies rather than reacting to an unexpected change in COVID conditions. Well-planned mitigation measures can reduce the height and duration of an upcoming surge.”
Contact Erin Zwick at erin.zwick@epistemix.com
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